Business cycle dating committee definition


Indeed, in dating business cycles, the NBER does not use this rule or focus on movements in quarterly real GDP. Lansing, (2003-17; June 20, 2003) is another insightful article into the behavior of the economy during the 2001 recession and into current expansion.In general usage, the word recession connotes a marked slippage in economic activity.The committee did not announce their determination that the 2001 recession ended in November until July 17, 2003.The committee noted that, “The 2001 recession thus lasted eight months, which is slightly less than the average duration of recessions since World War II.Official business cycle dates—the peaks and troughs in the economy that define recessions and expansions—in the U. Today it has over 600 university professors and researchers who conduct empirical research on the economy as Bureau associates.Business Cycles Within the NBER, the Business Cycle Dating Committee plays the key role in determining business cycle dates.Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.Because a recession influences the economy broadly and is not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity.

The committee generally also studies another monthly indicator of economy-wide activity, personal income less transfer payments, in real terms, adjusted for price changes.

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A popular rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarterly declines in real GDP signal a recession.


This rule is consistent with the dispersion and duration requirements for a recession and with the average recessionary path of real GDP; however, two very small quarterly declines might not produce the depth required for a recession.The NBER defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses defer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.


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